Abstract
Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.