Abstract
Epigenomes have remarkable potential for the estimation of plant traits. This study tested the hypothesis that natural variation in DNA methylation can be used to estimate industrially important traits in a genetically diverse population of Populus balsamifera L. (balsam poplar) trees grown at two common garden sites. Statistical learning experiments enabled by deep learning models revealed that plant traits in novel genotypes can be modelled transparently using small numbers of methylated DNA predictors. Using this approach, tissue type, a nonheritable attribute, from which DNA methylomes were derived was assigned, and provenance, a purely heritable trait and an element of population structure, was determined. Significant proportions of phenotypic variance in quantitative wood traits, including total biomass (57.5%), wood density (40.9%), soluble lignin (25.3%) and cell wall carbohydrate (mannose: 44.8%) contents, were also explained from natural variation in DNA methylation. Modelling plant traits using DNA methylation can capture tissue-specific epigenetic mechanisms underlying plant phenotypes in natural environments. DNA methylation-based models offer new insight into natural epigenetic influence on plants and can be used as a strategy to validate the identity, provenance or quality of agroforestry products.