Abstract
Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) may be a solution to therapeutic failure of infliximab for patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), as underexposure could be avoided, and the probability of endoscopic improvement (pEI; Mayo endoscopic subscore ≤ 1) could be optimized. To investigate in silico whether this claim has merit, four induction dosing regimens were simulated: 5 mg/kg (label dosing), 10 mg/kg, covariate-based MIPD (fat-free mass, corticosteroid use, and presence of extensive colitis at baseline), and concentration-based MIPD (based on the trough concentration at day 14). Covariate- and concentration-based MIPD were chosen to target the same median area under the infliximab concentration-time curve up to endoscopy at day 84 (AUCd84), as was predicted from 10 mg/kg dosing. Dosing at 5 mg/kg resulted in a mean ± standard deviation pEI of 55.7 ± 9.0%. Increasing the dose to 10 mg/kg was predicted to improve pEI to 65.1 ± 6.1%. Covariate-based MIPD reduced variability in exposure and pEI (65.1 ± 5.5%). Concentration-based MIPD decreased variability further (66.0 ± 3.9%) but did so at an increased average dose of 2293 mg per patient, as compared to 2168 mg for 10 mg/kg dosing. Mean pEI remained unchanged between 10 mg/kg dosing and MIPD, since the same median AUCd84 was targeted. In conclusion, quantitative simulations predict MIPD will reduce variability in exposure and pEI between patients with UC during infliximab induction therapy.