Abstract
BACKGROUND: Traumatic fractures occur frequently worldwide. However, research remains limited on the association between short-term exposure to temperature and traumatic fractures. This study aims to explore the impact of apparent temperature (AT) on emergency visits (EVs) due to traumatic fractures. METHODS: Based on EVs data for traumatic fractures and the contemporary meteorological data, a generalized Poisson regression model along with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) were undertaken to determine the impact of AT on traumatic fracture EVs. Subgroup analysis by gender and age and sensitivity analysis were also performed. RESULTS: A total of 25,094 EVs for traumatic fractures were included in the study. We observed a wide "J"-shaped relationship between AT and risk of traumatic fractures, with AT above 9.5 °C positively associated with EVs due to traumatic fractures. The heat effects became significant at cumulative lag 0-11 days, and the relative risk (RR) for moderate heat (95th percentile, 35.7 °C) and extreme heat (99.5th percentile, 38.8 °C) effect was 1.311 (95% CI: 1.132-1.518) and 1.418 (95% CI: 1.191-1.688) at cumulative lag 0-14 days, respectively. The cold effects were consistently non-significant on single or cumulative lag days across 0-14 days. The heat effects were higher among male and those aged 18-65 years old. The sensitivity analysis results remained robust. CONCLUSION: Higher AT is associated with cumulative and delayed higher traumatic fracture EVs. The male and those aged 18-65 years are more susceptible to higher AT.