Abstract
Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is a chronic disease of cattle caused by infection with BVD virus (BVDV) and can result in economic losses within the livestock industry. In Japan, the test and culling policy is a basic control measure, and implementation of an adequate vaccination program is recommended as a national policy. In addition, optional control measures, including compulsory testing of introduced animals and bulk tank milk (BTM) testing as a mass screening method, are used in several provinces, but their efficacy has not been completely assessed. We evaluated these control measures using the scenario tree model of BVD in Japan, developed in the previous study. The model outputs indicated that compulsory testing of all introduced cattle, rather than only heifers and/or non-vaccinated cattle, was cost effective and reduced the risk of BVDV introduction due to animal movement and that BTM testing could effectively monitor most part of the cattle population. Vaccination coverage and BVDV prevalence among introduced cattle could also affect the cost effectiveness of compulsory testing of targeted cattle, particularly under low vaccination coverage or high BVDV prevalence. However, even with the implementation of a highly effective monitoring scheme for many years, BVD risk could not be eliminated; it instead converged at a very low level (0.02%). Disease models with a cost-effective output could be a powerful tool in developing a control scheme for chronic animal diseases, including BVD, with the consent of relevant stakeholders.