Abstract
PURPOSE: Biomarkers used for predicting longitudinal cognitive change in Alzheimer's disease (AD) continuum are still elusive. Tau pathology, neuroinflammation, and neurodegeneration are the leading candidate predictors. We aimed to determine these three aspects of biomarkers in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma to predict longitudinal cognition status using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 430 subjects including, 96 cognitive normal (CN) with amyloid β (Aβ)-negative, 54 CN with Aβ-positive, 195 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) with Aβ-positive, and 85 AD with amyloid-positive (Aβ-positive are identified by CSF Aβ42/Aβ40 < 0.138). Aβ burden was evaluated by CSF and plasma Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio; tau pathology was evaluated by CSF and plasma phosphorylated-tau (p-tau181); microglial activation was measured by CSF soluble TREM2 (sTREM2) and progranulin (PGRN); neurodegeneration was measured by CSF and plasma t-tau and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); cognition was examined annually over the subsequent 8 years using the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognition 13-item scale (ADAS13) and Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE). Linear mixed-effects models (LME) were applied to assess the correlation between biomarkers and longitudinal cognition decline, as well as their effect size on the prediction of longitudinal cognitive decline. RESULTS: Baseline CSF Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio was decreased in MCI and AD compared to CN, while CSF p-tau181 and t-tau increased. Baseline CSF sTREM2 and PGRN did not show any differences in MCI and AD compared to CN. Baseline brain volumes (including the hippocampal, entorhinal, middle temporal lobe, and whole-brain) decreased in MCI and AD groups. For the longitudinal study, there were significant interaction effects of CSF p-tau181 × time, plasma p-tau181 × time, CSF sTREM2 × time, and brain volumes × time, indicating CSF, and plasma p-tau181, CSF sTREM2, and brain volumes could predict longitudinal cognition deterioration rate. CSF sTREM2, CSF, and plasma p-tau181 had similar medium prediction effects, while brain volumes showed stronger effects in predicting cognition decline. CONCLUSION: Our study reported that baseline CSF sTREM2, CSF, and plasma p-tau181, as well as structural MRI, could predict longitudinal cognitive decline in subjects with positive AD pathology. Plasma p-tau181 can be used as a relatively noninvasive reliable biomarker for AD longitudinal cognition decline prediction.