Abstract
BACKGROUND: The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been proposed as a surrogate marker of inflammation with prognostic value in various diseases. Our objective was to investigate the predictive value of the NLR as an indicator of persistent organ failure (POF) in patients with hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP). METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the data from patients with HTGP between 2016 and 2019. The NLR was obtained at admission. The diagnostic performance of the NLR for POF was evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUROC). Multivariate logistic regression determined whether elevated NLR was independently associated with POF. RESULTS: Of the 446 patients enrolled, 89 (20.0%) developed POF. Patients with POF showed a significantly higher NLR than those without POF (P < 0.001). A positive trend for the association across increasing NLR quartiles and the incidence of POF was observed (P (trend) < 0.001). The AUROC of NLR to predict POF was 0.673 (95% confidence interval, 0.627-0.716). With a cut-off of NLR > 6.56, the sensitivity and specificity were 73.0% and 55.7%, respectively. Multivariate analysis suggested that high NLR (>6.56) was independently associated with POF (odds ratio, 2.580; 95% confidence interval, 1.439-4.626; P = 0.001). Patients with a high NLR (>6.56) had a worse overall clinical course in HTGP. CONCLUSION: Elevated NLR was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing POF and could be an early independent predictor of POF in patients with HTGP.