Abstract
BACKGROUND: Given the inconsistent findings regarding associations between obesity and unemployment, our analysis is one of the few that explores bidirectional changes in obesity and unemployment. In our prospective study, we address factors associated with the a. transition into and transition out of obesity, including unemployment, and b. transition into and out of unemployment, including obesity. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The Labor Market and Social Security-Panel (PASS) consists of two independent, nationally representative German subsamples: residents receiving unemployment benefits (50%) and a representative sample of residents (50%). The sample contains N = 11 361 observations between two measurement points three years apart of N = 8440 individuals participating in two or three waves between 2009 and 2015. We analyzed potential predictors of the transition in and out of obesity and unemployment, including health-related quality of life (HrQoL) and physical activity, using logistic regression models. RESULTS: 1. Transition into obesity: Unemployed participants had a higher probability of exhibiting a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 35 kg/m(2) three years later (transition into obesity classes II and III; Exp(B) = 1.5). 2. Transition out of obesity: Unemployment did not predict transition out of obesity. Physical activity at least once weekly increased the probability of no longer having a BMI ≥ 35 kg/m(2) three years later (Exp(B) = 2.0). 3. Transition into unemployment: Obesity was not associated with becoming unemployed three years later. Participants with a lower mental HrQoL were more likely to become unemployed (Exp(B) = 0.98). 4. Transition out of unemployment: Unemployed individuals reporting a BMI of 30-34.9 kg/m(2) were less likely to leave unemployment (Exp(B) = 0.67). A better physical HrQoL was associated with a higher probability of leaving unemployment (Exp(B) = 1.01). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity does not predict future unemployment, but unemployed individuals with obesity have a lower probability of labor market re-entry. Unemployment increases obesity risk. Interactions between obesity and possible confounding variables and their effect on unemployment warrants further examination.