Abstract
BACKGROUND: Mutated KRAS may indicate an invasive nature and predict prognosis in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). We aimed to establish a radiomic model using pretreatment T2W MRIs to predict KRAS status and explore the association between the KRAS status or model predictions and lung metastasis. METHODS: In this retrospective multicentre study, LARC patients from two institutions between January 2012 and January 2019 were randomly divided into training and testing cohorts. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and the support vector machine (SVM) classifier were utilized to select significant radiomic features and establish a prediction model, which was validated by radiomic score distribution and decision curve analysis. The association between the model stratification and lung metastasis was investigated by Cox regression and Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis; the results were compared by the log-rank test. RESULTS: Overall, 103 patients were enrolled (73 and 30 in the training and testing cohorts, respectively). The median follow-up was 38.1 months (interquartile range: 26.9, 49.4). The radiomic model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.983 in the training cohort and 0.814 in the testing cohort. Using a cut-off of 0.679 defined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, patients with a high radiomic score (RS) had a higher risk for lung metastasis (HR 3.565, 95% CI 1.337, 9.505, p = 0.011), showing similar predictive performances for the mutant and wild-type KRAS groups (HR 3.225, 95% CI 1.249, 8.323, p = 0.016, IDI: 1.08%, p = 0.687; NRI 2.23%, p = 0.766). CONCLUSIONS: We established and validated a radiomic model for predicting KRAS status in LARC. Patients with high RS experienced more lung metastases. The model could noninvasively detect KRAS status and may help individualize clinical decision-making.