Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with first-line chemo- or targeted therapy

用于预测接受一线化疗或靶向治疗的晚期非小细胞肺癌患者生存期的预后模型

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the prognostic role of neutrophilia, lymphocytopenia and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and to design models to define the prognosis of patients receiving first-line chemo- or targeted therapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 401 consecutive patients with advanced NSCLC treated with first line chemo- or targeted therapy. Patients were stratified into two groups with pre-treatment NLR ≥ 3.7 (Group A) vs. < 3.7 (Group B). The best NLR cut-off was identified by ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: At baseline 264 patients had NLR≥3.7 (Group A), whilst 137 had lower NLR (Group B). Median OS was 10.8 months and 19.4 months in the two groups (p < 0.001), while median PFS was 3.6 months and 5.6 months, respectively (p = 0.012). At multivariate analysis, ECOG-PS≥2, stage IV cancer, non-adenocarcinoma histology, EGFR wild-type status and NLR were predictors of worse OS. Stage IV cancer, wild type EGFR status and NLR≥3.7 were independent prognostic factors for worse PFS. Patients were stratified according to the presence of 0-1 prognostic factors (8%), 2-3 factors (73%) and 4-5 factors (19%) and median OS in these groups was 33.7 months, 14.6 months and 6.6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). Similarly, patients were stratified for PFS based on the presence of 0-1 prognostic factor (15%), 2 factors (41%) and 3 factors (44%). The median PFS was 8.3 months, 4.6 months and 3.3 months respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-treatment NLR is an independent prognostic factor for patients with advanced NSCLC treated with first-line therapies.

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