Conclusion
Our data suggest the absence of early lethal community spread of COVID-19 in Basel before its initial reported emergence in Switzerland in March 2020.
Methods
To assess the early presence of lethal COVID-19 in Switzerland, we retrospectively performed an analysis of deaths at University Hospital Basel between October 2019 and February 2020 (n = 310), comparing the incidence of clinical causes of death with March 2020 (n = 72), the month during which the first lethal COVID-19 cases in Basel were reported. Trends of COVID-19-suggestive sequelae, such as bronchopneumonia with organization, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), or pulmonary embolisms (PE) were evaluated. In cases where autopsy was performed (n = 71), analogous analyses were conducted on the cause of death and pulmonary histological findings. Eight cases with a COVID-19-suggestive clinical history and histopathology between October 2019 and February 2020, and 3 cases before October 2019, were selected for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR.
Results
A statistically significant rise in pulmonary causes of death was observed in March 2020 (p = 0.03), consistent with the reported emergence of lethal COVID-19 in Switzerland. A rise in lethal bronchopneumonia was observed between December 2019 and January 2020, which was likely seasonal. The incidence of lethal ARDS and PE was uniformly low between October 2019 and February 2020. All autopsy cases analyzed by means of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR yielded negative results.